Obama's first China visit won't shake the world

• Source: Global Times
• [23:23 November 04 2009]
• Comments

By Sun Weichi

US President Barack Obama's much-anticipated visit to China, the first to be carried out in a US president's first year in offi ce, has raised expectations in both Beijing and Washington.

However, the excitement may be overblown.

Obama has already planned talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao on many issues, including climate change, regional security, and Sino-US military cooperation, according to related reports and the statement by Kurt Campbell, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, on October 19.

Given the background to Obama's visit, where China's overall national strength is rising but the US faces great economic predicaments, China should understand Obama's eager expectations, but treat his visit as a regular one.

Too high expectations will probably lead to disappointment.

Due to the structural problems existing between China and the US, though both sides are going to discuss a wide range of important subjects and probably expand the fi elds for future cooperation, they can only start by tightening relations to avoid future confl icts.

The future development of the Sino-US relationship should be promoted on the basis of mutual trust.

From such a perspective, it's probably more important for Obama to build his credit, and thus deepen mutual trust, than to discuss tricky subjects that might be the starting point for real change.

Nevertheless, infl uenced by both lobbies in the US and existing policy, Obama will not make changes over Taiwan, Tibet or Sino-US trade.

The atmosphere will be good during his visit, but troubles may still emerge over these questions, such as over Obama's planned meeting with the Dalai Lama after Obama's visit to Beijing.

Kurt Campbell has stated that both sides should have more trust and confi dence toward each other and recognize where the red lines are in order to avoid misunderstandings.

Those words sound a little bit empty.

It's true that both sides should achieve mutual understanding.

However, it's really unacceptable if Obama is still not clear about issues concerning China's fundamental interests, like separatist activities in Taiwan and Tibet.

The US public barely cares about Obama's Asian visit, and is far keener on domestic issues. The US economy is just beginning to recover from recession, the unemployment rate is still high, and healthcare reform is mired in the political swamp.