Taiwan's military strategy naïve and dangerous

• Source: Global Times
• [21:11 February 04 2010]
• Comments

Editor's Note:

The Obama administration has officially announced an unprecedented arms sale to Taiwan, worth $6.4 billion. But how will these weapons affect Taiwan's military capabilities, and the security of the region? Global Times (GT) reporter Peng Kuang interviewed Du Wenlong(Du), a senior researcher with the PLA Academy of Military Sciences, on these questions.

Du Wenlong

GT: What is the current situation of Taiwan's military equipment?

Du: Taiwan's military forces are equipped by the US. From 1949 to 2009, the US provided more than $60 billion in military aid to Taiwan. Taiwan's military industry can only produce low-end products, while higher-end equipment comes from the US.

After years of the US arming Taiwan, the current equipment of the Taiwan forces is pretty good, especially for the air force and navy. On land, they have only the second generation of US equipment, since the most up-to-date third generation equipment has not been provided to Taiwan yet.

In the air force, the F16A/B supplied by the US and the Mirage 2000 supplied by France are the main fighters, and also the workhorse fighters in their countries of origin. The missiles supplied are also good, such as the AIM-120 air-to-air missile and the MICA missile, which are among the best products in the world.

The main battleships of the Taiwanese navy are either bought from the US, like the Kidd-class destroyer, or copied from the US.

For instance, the Cheng Kung-class frigate was copied from the Olivier Hazard Perry-class frigate. The Kang Ting-class frigate is copied from France's La Fayette-class frigate. These are also in the top rank of naval technologies. The Kang Ting-class frigates are the best stealth warship in the Asia-Pacific region, with 3,000-ton ships only registering as 300-ton boats on radar.

GT: What are included in this arms sale?

Du: Five systems are included in this arm sales: UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, JTIDS/Link 16 data chain, mine sweeping vessels, and the PAC-3 antimissile system.

GT: How is Taiwan's current mine-sweeping capability? Can the new equipment match its security demand?

Du: Except for decommissioned wood boats, Taiwan has about 20 minesweepers. The two minesweepers in this arms sales were retired from the US Navy, and cost $150 million. Taiwan is an island surrounded by water on all sides and with many harbors. Given the vast area of Taiwanese waters, it would take an enormous amount of time to clear mined harbors with this equipment. Two ships won't make a big difference.

If the cross-Straits situation deteriorates, and tens of thousands of mines are dropped into waters around Taiwan, as happened to Japan in World War II, it will almost be impossible to clean them. Anti-mining is a well-known problem for any navy.

GT: What about the Harpoon anti-ship missile?

Du: The Harpoon missile is primarily used as an anti-ship weapon, but, after modification, it can also be aimed at ground targets, especially those by harbors. These missiles do help to improve "Pre-emption and countermeasure" strategy.

Taiwan has already had around 100 Harpoon missiles. This arms sale brings the stockpile up. The most powerful usage is launch from submarines.

Taiwan has two Swordfish-class submarines that were bought from the Netherlands. These are 1980s technology, which is still not so bad today. They can use Harpoon missiles with their 533-mm torpedo tube, and even, if they have all the accessories, launch underwater.

GT: What is Taiwan's BoSheng system and how does it link to the JTIDS/Link 16 data chain?

Du: The BoSheng system is the command, control, and intelligence system of the Taiwanese armed forces. Though it isn't eye-catching to the public, this equipment may actually give the greatest military advantage among all these weapons. Since they now operate on the same standards, Taiwanese and Japanese forces can now be connected through the JTIDS/Link 16 data chain and placed under the command of the US. Therefore, technologically, Taiwan, Japan, and the US are prepared to launch joint military operations. The US is preparing to include Taiwan in its Asia-Pacific military strategy, which is very dangerous for Taiwan.

GT: How does the PAC-3 system improve Taiwan's antimissile capability?

Du: The PAC-3 system has got the most attention of any item in the weapons package. The effective antimissile range of PAC-3 is 40 to 50 kilometers, compared to only 30 kilometers on the PAC-2. It also has improved damage, accuracy, and covers an area several times larger than the PAC-2.

But these good performances have only been achieved in tests. They have not been used in real battles yet. In history, whether in the Gulf War or in Iran-Iraq War, nobody just launches a few missiles and waits for the enemy's antimissile system to work. It must target unexpected objects at unexpected moments.

PAC-3 is also a terminal antimissile system. Using this short-range missile in Taiwan, an island with a high population density, may do serious damage, even worse than being attacked by missiles.

Antimissile capabilities will be the important targets in military attacks. And they can easily be located by satellite, even with Google Earth. The security of these weapons themselves is really low.

So, these weapons do not improve defense capabilities, but aggravate the situation across the Taiwan Straits. The military resources of the two sides are not comparable. Getting into an arms race is a terrible choice for Taiwan.