Multilateral measures needed to rid of nuclear shadow

• Source: Global Times
• [22:46 April 13 2010]
• Comments

Bates Gill

Editor's Note:

With Chinese President Hu Jintao attending the Nuclear Security Summit, leaders from over 40 countries gathered in Washington to talk about how to prevent nuclear terrorism. The US has shown strong signs of support for President Barack Obama's proposal of a nuclear-free world. Last week, the US Department of Defense published the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), elaborating the US stance on such matters. Global Times (GT) reporter Wu Mian interviewed Bates Gill (Gill), director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, over the weekend, on how to understand the stance of the US from the NPR as well as the position China takes on this matter.

GT: You spoke highly of the newly-released NPR, commenting that it reduces the number of potential circumstances in which nuclear weapons could be used in the short term and slows the development of new-generation weapons in the long term. Do you think this initiative will be consistently supported by subsequent US administrations? Is there a chance that the US might take a step back on the nuclear issue if there were a change of administration in Washington?

Gill: These are very important statements on the part of the US president. It is precisely the kind of confidence-building statement of reassurance needed to help foster an international atmosphere more conducive to disarmament and nonproliferation.

Such statements carry a lot of weight, and future administrations would need to have very strong reasons for seeking to change them.

It is possible that if circumstances change in the future, and the NPR makes this clear, then future administrations will of course need to rethink this position.

All countries make solemn commitments with every intention of abiding by them.

However, it is also true that countries will adjust their policies as their interests require in light of changes on the international scene.

GT: It is stated in the latest NPR that "the US and China are increasingly interdependent and it is their shared responsibility to address global security threats." Yet in the 2002 NPR, China was regarded as a potential target if Taiwan came under attack. What changed the perception of China's role? Does the change indicate a closer strategic relationship between the two countries?

Gill: Strategists in both China and the US understand that there is potential for confrontation between the two countries. Chinese analysts have made statements on the need to threaten the US with nuclear weapons under certain circumstances.

However, these statements do not necessarily reflect official policy and may reflect instead a more lively and open debate in China about the country's security policy.

What is important to recognize is that the leaders of China and the US have clearly recognized for more than 30 years the strategic wisdom and necessity of building a more constructive and mutually beneficial partnership over time. That is the fundamental reality of US-China relations.

If anything, this reality has become even more important as China has emerged as a more engaged and influential player in international affairs.

The NPR states, "The US welcomes a strong, prosperous and successful China that plays a greater global role in supporting international rules, norms and institutions."

These statements regarding China reflect the longstanding and core reality of US-China relations, and are made with the intention of building a more stable, constructive, and reassured relationship between the two countries.