Distracted US too busy to tackle China
- Source: Global Times
- [22:54 September 08 2010]
- Comments
By Ding Gang
Some analysts have claimed that after the US withdraws from Iraq, it would be ready to deal with China. It sounds reasonable because since World War II the US has always looked for a main opponent. But this view is misleading. After all, the US war on terror is not over. The war in Afghanistan is not over and the main enemy is still terrorism. US forces withdrew, but the terrorists did not. Washington also values the economy above all else.
Today the US economy has become closely linked with the world economy, and especially with the emerging economies. The US economy cannot be improved without an improving world economy. In these two aspects, the US clearly remains dependent on the support of China.
The US will not regard China as its top rival after leaving Iraq. But the withdrawal will influence its policy toward China in at least two aspects.
In US President Barack Obama's speech on the troop withdrawal, he mentioned that one of the purposes of the withdrawal is to concentrate on the domestic economy. The war needs money and the US now cannot afford it. It needs to spend more money rescuing the domestic economy.
When Washington takes economic construction as a central platform, China's position is sure to rise, since China is the largest creditor of the US and the US is the largest investor in China. The two countries are each other's largest trading partner.
However, this rising position can be either good or bad. It is good because the economies of China and the US are closely linked and they will influence each other.
If the US economy improves, there will be an increase in employment and consumption will certainly revive, which is good for the export enterprises in China.
What about the bad side? In order to improve economy and increase employment, the US will see China as a top competitor that has taken away US opportunities. The US still thinks export expansion is key to economic recovery, so Washington will have to use trade protectionism and require China to open its doors even wider in the negotiations. This could be troublesome for China.
Obama also said one of the lessons drawn from the Iraq war is that US influence cannot just rely on military power. Some say that this means that the US should be more careful in the future use of military force, but the word "careful" is not the right one. Military force will be more cleverly used, including more subtle use of political influence.
Take China's neighboring countries as an example. The US has said it would "return to Asia," meaning a return of its influence. In a recent article, Japan's former defense minister compared US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Henry Kissinger, saying Kissinger's visit to China promoted China's opening to the world while Clinton's trip to Asia today sent the clearest signal: "The US does not want China to pursue regional hegemony."
Over issues involving the relationship between China and its neighboring countries, such as the South China Sea clashes, the US may not use military force to compete with China, but it will certainly make greater use of its dominant position in this region and more flexibly exert the balancing effects brought by its influence and military force.
It will maneuver around China to achieve strategic advantage and maintain the initiative of the US in the region. The US will put pressure on China in some bilateral, multilateral and major international forums on some major and regional issues, requiring China to act in accordance with its requests. These may be the major difficulties we will encounter in the near future.
However, in essence, these troubles between China and the US are not new and they will not change the development of Sino-US relations.
Sino-US relations will not have a big turning point and they will keep going forward with frictions now and then. Therefore, we do not need to be nervous and become too sensitive to some problems in Sino-US relations just because the US troops are withdrawing from Iraq.
At this moment, we need to be calm and clearly understand the trend of Sino-US relations.
The author is a senior editor with the People's Daily. dinggang@globaltimes.com.cn
