China not yet a great power

• Source: The Global Times
• [01:04 June 10 2009]
• Comments

Lately, there has been a great deal of enthusiasm among Chinese and foreigners alike for characterizing China as an emerging “great power,” “world power,” or “global leader.” This is not without reason. China has become the third largest economy in the world and is expected to be the leading one in 20 years. It has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves. It has achieved remarkable progress in other areas as well, like education, military, and science and technology. China’s international leverage is also growing.

The aura of China’s success is, unfortunately, seriously undermined by many weaknesses and fragilities that plague the country. Economic development is substantially unbalanced, leading to economic inequality that may dampen sustainable growth. The gap between rural and urban areas, and between different regions, is widening and a large proportion of Chinese are still impoverished. One consequence, among others, is that the building of a genuine sense of nationhood essential to being a great power has been weakened.

China’s educational system is lacking. The country has too few world-class universities and not enough high-quality ones. The ideas, scientific and cultural, born in China are less useful than those from the West. China’s science and technology sector cannot compare to that of the West. China’s military might lags far behind that of the US, Russia, and the UK. China is still transitioning from learning from the behavior of others to being creative on its own. Foreigners have no great admiration for China’s products, ideas, or people – an admiration that a great power is supposed to enjoy.

The government has not successfully exerted a great influence regionally, let alone globally. Realizing such an influence will require not only power but also strong diplomacy, both of which China currently lacks. For example, China’s role in the six party talks on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue is indispensable, but doesn’t put China in the driver’s seat.

As a renowned Chinese scholar of international relations, Yan Xuetong, has noted, in order for a country to become a great power, it has to develop its overall capacity in economic, political, cultural, and military power all at once. Against this benchmark, there is a long way for China to go, if being a great power is its goal.

China’s rapid change is generating great hopes and illusions. But the Chinese government and people should have a realistic idea of what the country is and what it isn’t.

The misperception of China as a great power has also led many foreign countries to seek to saddle China with a great deal of responsibility in handling international issues. While China would eventually like to contribute more to handling such issues, the country’s capability at present is limited.

China’s focus for now must lie in maintaining its steady development.