Pitfalls of a nation in auto mode

• Source: Global Times
• [01:20 December 10 2009]
• Comments

There may be only vague traces surviving in public memory of China as a nation of bicycles. The army of bicycles racing through the busy crossroads of cities nationwide is an image that belongs to a distant past. At its peak, China had over 500 million bicycles.

Now, every bicycle rider seemingly wants to own a car. For most Chinese, a car is a must-have item only after an apartment. In Beijing, more than 1,300 new cars are added everyday to its already congested roads.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimated Monday that vehicle output and sale could surpass 13 million this year, making China the undisputed No.1 auto mobilized country in the world.

It is a proud achievement for a nation that two decades ago could not have dreamed of this, and when many thrilled to a car ride.

China has over 170 million vehicles as of June 2009. Imagine this figure growing fourfold: enormous increase in air pollution, prohibitively expensive gas, unmanage-able congestion on the roads, severe scarcity of parking space and last but not least, unimaginably more traffic accidents.

It does not look so much a rosy picture of robust growth as a gloomy scene in a disaster-themed film. Vehicles already account for nearly half of the pollution in Chinese cities, and almost half of the total oil consumption goes to meet the fuel demand of vehicles. And, the situation is bound to get worse before it changes for the better.

Everyone is entitled to own a car. After all, per capita ownership of vehicles in China is only one-fifth of that in Japan or one-seventh of what it is in the US.

Just as many years ago, Chinese families saved hard for a colorful TV set and a refrigerator, today the majority is saving for a car to give them greater mobility and upgrade the quality of their life.

But for a population of 1.3 billion with per capita land availability being 1/12th of that in the US, the dream of each family owning a car could easily turn into a nightmare for everyone. When consumers enthusiastically talk about which car models to choose from, the future of the auto industry becomes the one to decide the coun-try's development strategy.

Doubtless, the government needs to help fulfill that dream. At the same time, it has to be ensured that the economy can afford the fulfillment of this dream in the context of energy security and social harmony.

How this is managed with foresight would show whether the Chinese enjoy the pleasures of a smooth drive and avoid the pitfalls of an auto nation.

There is no way to avoid that difficult problem. We have to face it and be prepared for solving it.