US-Japan squabbles may leave China in tough spot

• Source: Global Times
• [21:34 May 04 2010]
• Comments

Satoshi Morimoto

Editor's Note:

Over 90,000 residents in Okinawa, Japan stormed the streets recently with banners to oppose the relocation of a US air base on their island, putting more pressure on Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama to resolve an issue that has divided Japan and the US.

The demonstration was the largest one in years, and the main goal was to demand Hatoyama scrap an agreement signed in 2006 with the US to relocate the Futenma Marine Corps Air Station at a different site on the island.

Global Times special correspondent Qiu Zhaofeng (Qiu) talked to Satoshi Morimoto (Morimoto), a professor at Takushoku University specializing in international politics and national security, on the possible influence cooling Japan-US relations will have on China.

Qiu: The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) promised to move the Futenma Marine Corps Air Station out of Okinawa. Why is the US insisting on the current proposal now?

Morimoto: Before the general election last August, the DPJ put reassessing the deployment of the US army in Japan in their campaign platform.

There are several reasons why the DPJ is not accepting the agreement that the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), had signed with the US.

First, the pacifist Social Democrats oppose all US military bases in Japan, a view the DPJ does not share. The Social Democrats hold that the Futenma Marine Corps Air Station should be moved to Guam, Tinian or Saipan island.

The DPJ agreed to this proposal to get more political power and promised to move the air station out of Japan, or at least out of Okinawa, to release the burden on it.

Second, the current agreement was signed by the LDP with the Bush administration, which gives the DPJ sufficient reason to wonder whether there was money and other interests involved when it was signed.

They want to investigate the deal more and find more about the details about how the current agreement was done.

The reason why the US is insisting on the current agreement is that there is no place in Japan that would want this hot potato. At the moment, it is only the mayor of Henoko who has accepted this proposal.

Besides, Henoko is very close to Futenma and other US military bases. It will be easy to shift bases around and will be convenient for future military training.

I think most likely the Japanese government will issue an amendment on the current Henoko agreement.

For example, there might be a suggestion to build an airstrip on the further south, so that the security could be better guaranteed, and also the Futenma area can be returned to Okinawa, which is easy for the local government to accept.

Qiu: Hatoyama said that the Futenma issue will be resolved by the end of May. What do you think? If he cannot keep his promise, what effect will this have on the political situation of Japan?

Morimoto: I don't see the possibility of this issue being resolved by the end of May. It has been 14 years since Japan and the US signed the transaction protocol.

There is less than a month's time between now and the deadline when this should be resolved. I don't think the US will agree to this in such a short period of time.

Public support for Hatoyama has been dropping. Also the DPJ is very likely to have a tough time in the coming Upper House election in July.

Although the DPJ could ally itself with other parties to form a coalition party to avoid a complete regime change, public distrust toward the party is so deep that it will be almost impossible for the DPJ to deal with the difficult situation.

Besides, Japan-US relations are worsening. Cooperation between Japan and the US, such as discussions on environmental protection, building an East Asian Community and peripheral diplomacy, will unavoidably decrease. The key point is whether the US trust toward Japan will fall.

Qiu: How will this affect China?

Morimoto: In my opinion, if Japan- US relations get worse, China won't benefit. Perhaps a lot of Chinese people see the worsening Japan-US relations as a good thing, something that will let China gain an advantage, but as a matter of fact, it is a very tough situation for the Chinese government.

If Japan and the US are squabbling all the time, China will not be able to avoid being affected or even involved. For example, look at the Six-Party Talks concerning the nuclear issue in North Korea.