Pakistani Taliban still powerful, but disorganized

• Source: Global Times
• [10:58 September 17 2009]
• Comments

Since Al Qaeda itself is stationed near the border in Pakistan, the Pakistani Taliban gets more financial support than the Afghanistan Taliban does. The relation between the Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda has become even closer.

GT: Is there any possibility of national Talibanization in Pakistan?

Zhou: That's impossible. Pakistan was a British colony and was influenced by Western culture and civilization for about a century. Such influence lingers on, especially in big cities where over 60 percent of the country's population lives.

Talibanization only happens in some undeveloped and remote areas that have high illiteracy rates, and it will not last long. More black-robed women or bearded men are just the surface of the matter, while cultural and psychological influences play a core role.

GT: What is the attitude of ordinary people in Afghanistan and Pakistan toward the Taliban?

Zhou: An American journalist once interviewed Pakistani tribal militant groups, asking why, since the US came to help fight against the Taliban, they could not join with the US forces?

A tribal leader answered that both they and the Taliban are Muslims, and whether or not they fight against the Taliban is their internal affair. Once the US invades, they will certainly unite with the Taliban against the US.

However, the Taliban is much more unpopular in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. In Pakistan, there could be a nationwide anti-Taliban front. Even religious extremist groups sometimes stand on the government side. Yet in Afghanistan, it is almost impossible that religious figures say anything bad about the Taliban.

GT: And how about the military operations and current situation in Afghanistan?

Zhou: In the battlefield of Afghanistan, the Taliban is in control of the Pashtun areas. The frontline forces are the Dutch, British, Canadians and the Americans.

The British army is basically focusing on investigating drug smuggling and the US army's main target is terrorism. The US army is more popular with the locals, while the British army is facing a lot of opposition from the people.

The reason is that drugs are the main financial resource for the local people and there's no economic substitute for them. Although drug dealers control those areas, the profits local people make from opium is still more than they could ever make from other crops. The anti-drug smuggling efforts are cutting the source of income to the local people. Although it may not be their original intention to do immoral things like drug smuggling, when it comes to surviving, morals will be put aside.

The strategy adopted by the US to deal with Afghanistan, the Taliban and Al Qaeda is to use both military strikes and amnesties to break up the enemy. Now the dominant tactic is military strikes, whose goal is to contain the Taliban in the battlefield in order to allow the Afghan military to gain an advantage, so the US can retreat from Afghanistan.

Without US military backup, however, the Afghan government will probably be unable to last. It is a must for the US to stop the Taliban from coming back. Unfortunately, this is too hard to achieve.